Compliance forecast
The compliance forecast score predicts the probability that a patient on a specific therapy day may meet the CMS definition of compliance. The compliance forecast uses a predictive model. A higher score indicates a greater likelihood that the patient will meet CMS compliance requirements.
The compliance forecast score refreshes each day and can change if one key factor, such as duration of use from the most recent night, or the 7-day average usage, varies from a previous day. The compliance forecast value represents the nearest whole number. For example, a compliance forecast value of 93.6% rounds up to 94%.
From the Compliance page, click Explain forecast to view the factors that are currently affecting the compliance forecast and how it changes over time.
For more information about how Orion calculates the compliance forecast, see About the compliance forecast model.
The Factors that affect forecast and Effect on forecast sections show the key variables influencing the patient's forecast score:
Green indicates positive impact
Red indicated negative impact
Factors are ranked by their influence on the final score.
In the following example, Duration of use from the most recent night has the highest positive impact on the compliance forecast score, followed by number of compliant days in the last 30 days. The patient's time on therapy (Days since setup) has the highest negative impact on the compliance forecast.
The Change in compliance forecast % graph displays how the forecast has changed over time.
Use this graph to:
monitor improvement trends
identify periods of declining usage
understand how recent therapy impacts projected compliance.